Collective action to tackle climate change

This was published in SAWTEE’s eNewsletter Trade, Climate Change and Development Monitor, Volume 18, Issue 10, October 2021.

Lately, the frequency of irregular climate patterns across the world and their impact on lives and livelihoods have made climate change the greatest risk for all. As many as 132 million people are estimated to be pushed to poverty due to climate change impacts in the next decade. In addition, the natural disasters propelled by climate change is projected to cost about US$18 billion per year to low- and middle-income countries due to the damage of transport and power generation alone. Moreover, a World Bank research estimates that by 2050, climate change is likely to displace 216 million people, forcing them to migrate within countries.

The 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), which began on October 31 in Glasgow, United Kingdom, where 190 world leaders and tens of thousands of negotiators, government representatives, businesses and citizens convene for twelve days of talks to reiterate their countries’ commitment towards limiting global warming. Following the Paris Climate Agreement in COP21 in 2015, when the countries committed to working together to limit global warming to well below 2°C, this edition is quite instrumental. In COP26, those parties to the Paris Agreement will update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The NDCs set out the individual countries’ plans to reduce emissions and show if the world is on track to meet climate goals.

Containing global temperature rise is the most pressing issue when it comes to tackling climate change. Reports have been sounding the warning that it will be too late if countries fail in controlling their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Besides the obvious reasons to tackle climate change, it makes economic sense too. A report published by the Swiss Re Institute underlines that by mid-century, the global GDP would be 11 to 14 percent less than in a world without climate change. If no mitigation measures are adopted and the temperature rises by 3.2°C by mid-century, the global economy would be 18 percent smaller than in a world without climate change. However, if the Paris Agreement’s mid-century target of below 2°C is met, the global economic loss can be as less as 4.2 percent.

South Asia is projected to be one of the most affected regions largely due to its geographical landscape, poor economic standards, and demography. South Asia houses more than 1.5 billion population on the floodplains of the rivers emanating from the Himalayas. The rise in the global temperature has caused glaciers and ice masses in the Himalayas to melt faster than the usual pace, increasing the frequency of floods in the hills and the plains. Such unusual patterns also cause a greater risk of unusual rainfall and erratic weather patterns. Recent irregular seasonal climatic patterns, especially in Nepal and northern India, is a fresh example. The added presence of irregular climatic conditions and its impact on agriculture and livelihood is feared to increase poverty and food and nutrition insecurity in the region which already is home to millions of the poor. According to a study done by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), there are 20 potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal and 25 in Bhutan. These “potentially dangerous glacial lakes” are increasingly vulnerable more than ever due to climate change. Hence, it is pertinent for us to realize the danger it can create in the near future and work accordingly to rectify the issue.

Nepal experienced a prolonged and heavy monsoon season this year with continuous rainfall propelling landslides and floods all across the country, damaging several infrastructures and disrupting transportation. Moreover, according to Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, unseasonal rainfall in October damaged paddy crops worth NPR 8.26 billion. Since the paddy crop contributes about 7 percent to the country’s GDP, the unseasonal rainfall is expected to shave 0.5-0.6 percentage points from Nepal’s GDP in this fiscal year.

Likewise, the coastlines of Sri Lanka and the Maldives, where a significant population resides, are largely threatened by the rising sea level. Many coastal lands in Sri Lanka and the Maldives are only one meter above sea level, thus any rise in sea level will risk millions of lives. Similarly, by 2050, the sea level is predicted to rise by 45 cm alone in Bangladesh and 15-38 cm in India. Given such a critical situation, it is easy to understand how vulnerable the South Asian region is to climate change impacts.

Although GHG emissions of South Asia as a region is quite low, the region is likely to be affected the most by climate change. Thus, South Asian countries coming together and joining hands with other countries in a similar situation at forums such as COP26 could be a way forward to pressurize developed and relatively more powerful countries to implement their commitment towards zero-carbon emission targets. Moreover, poor and vulnerable countries are facing the greatest climate risks but have fewer resources to mitigate the natural and economic disasters caused by the impacts. It is only fair if richer countries responsible for the emissions that induce climate change contribute to compensate or at least help these countries adapt to and mitigate climate change impacts through necessary technologies and infrastructure.

Importantly, strategies to overcome climate change hurdles differ extensively from region to region and country to country. However, any country or region cannot fight climate change on their own. They need to go hand in hand and work together with countries across the world to design effective policies and wisely implement them to combat climate change issues. Forums like COP26 provide these opportunities for collective action and should not be wasted.